Monument Health model shows earlier than expected coronavirus peak
New numbers show cases of the coronavirus spreading faster than expected here in this area.
New projections from Monument Health show COVID-19 growing rapidly in our region over the coming weeks..
There are 266 cases in West River counties as of Wednesday.
Monument's new short-term projection show that number could nearly triple to 776 cases over the next two weeks.
Monument says those new figures are based on actual data over the past two weeks.
One of the factors they talk about is the doubling rate, which currently sits at eight, meaning the number of cases will double in eight days.
Monument says there are 30 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Rapid City Wednesday and Department of Health models show that number could grow to 400 in late June.
Now Monument is talking about their latest long-term analytic projection model.
Monument Health chief medical officer Dr. Brad Archer says, "That takes several variables around how the virus is spreading and how infections are affecting people and attempts to project that out in the farther distant future over several weeks and months. And what we're seeing now with the model we agreed upon using the state and the other two.large health systems in the state, we're seeing numbers here in our service area that are surpassing the estimations of that model for our date."
Monument says they've done 2,221 antibody tests since April 20th, with less than one percent coming back positive.