Plenty of moisture on the way

Published: Apr. 9, 2022 at 7:44 PM MDT
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RAPID CITY, S.D. (KEVN) - A Winter Weather Advisory is in place until 6 p.m. Sunday. Rain and snow will pass through the area and the Black Hills will see snow accumulate. Much of the hills will pick up 2″-4″ of snow, while some could get up to 6″. Lighter accumulations are expected for Wyoming. 1″-3″ of snow on the plains there are likely.

Moisture will taper off Sunday evening and we’re expected to have a relatively calm Monday. Plenty of clouds, but mostly dry and not a lot of wind expected. A few showers are possible north, but they’ll be on the lighter side.

We’re still watching the potential for a spring snowstorm to impact the area Monday night through Wednesday night. Over the past few days, the European weather model (EURO) had Rapid City under the bullseye for heavy snow. The American weather model (GFS) had shifted the track north a few days ago. As of today’s data, the EURO has joined the GFS in the northerly shift party.

This would put the heaviest snow in Montana, North Dakota, northern Wyoming and northwest South Dakota. There’s still a lot of time for models to continue a northerly shift, or bring the storm back south. Timing has been pretty locked in place with the storm impacting Tuesday and Wednesday, but now the storm track is starting to align. Next step is to see if there is consistency in future outputs, of if any disagreement pops back up.

The bad news is the abundant moisture doesn’t look to impact the entire area. The good news is that it is currently set up to impact those with the worst drought conditions currently.

There is a Winter Storm Watch in place for Sheridan County in Wyoming and Carter County in Montana. This starts Monday night and goes through Wednesday night. The watch mentions the potential of 4″-8″ of snow with higher amounts likely in spots. Travel will be extremely difficult in these areas. The combination of cold air, wind and snow will pose a significant threat to young livestock. Heads up to area ranchers.

We will continue to monitor new data that comes in tonight and Sunday morning to bring a forecast with higher confidence. Until then, stay tuned.

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